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Saturday, 24 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S RECOVERY IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER SAYS SHIPOWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the weaker than expected market sentiment in the dry bulk market over the course of the past few months, analysts and shipowners alike appear optimistic about a sustainable recovery of the market going forward. According to Friday's report from dry bulk shipowner Golden Ocean, "even though second quarter spot market so far has been weaker than predicted by most analysts following the sector, earnings have still been better than for the same period last year.
The Capesize earnings has year to date been $14,650 /day, compared to $5,650/day for the same period last year. In 2013 the dry bulk market started its recovery in June and gained more momentum from August onwards. From a demand perspective it is expected that new iron ore supply coming on stream will be the main driver over the next two to three years. From 2014 through 2016 as much as 280 million tons additional supply will become available for the global steel industry", said Golden Ocean.
In its market outlook the company noted that "analysts following the Chinese steel industry are expecting lower steel production growth. This is based on the assumptions of lower GDP growth and a gradual change from heavy infrastructure projects and construction to a more consumer focused growth model. In spite of a slower steel production growth analysts believe that demand for iron ore will continue to grow at a steady pace. With all the new capacity entering the market is likely that international iron ore prices will come under even stronger pressure. Consequently a major portion of the domestically produced iron ore which is both more expensive and with an inferior quality could potentially be ousted.
Meanwhile, the ordering of new vessels has been quite brisk. But given that most orders that have been placed lately are for second half 2016 onwards, the supply growth next eighteen months is not expected to exceed five per cent per annum. Most shipping analysts believe that demand growth will be around six per cent per annum and thereby outpace supply growth, leading to a higher utilization of the dry bulk fleet through 2015", Golden Ocean noted.
In its analysis of the dry bulk market so far in the year, the company said that "the second biggest economy in the world continued to make the headlines during first quarter of 2014. China has become the favorite of concerns among many observers analyzing the macroeconomics. The importance for the dry bulk industry is well known and China contributed with 83 per cent of global dry bulk growth, or 200 million tons in pure volume growth, during 2013. Chinese GDP grew by 7.4 per cent during the first quarter which was in line with expectations. In addition to the positive development in the U.S., several of the European economies showed signs of recovery. On the back of this EU increased its steel
production by 6.7 percent compared to same quarter in 2013.
The global steel industry and energy coal for utilities are accounting for about 70 percent of seaborne dry bulk transportations and both coal and iron ore volumes increased during first quarter. China imported 240 million mt of iron ore during the first quarter. This is 20 per cent more than the same quarter last year. Coal imports to China came in at 71 million mt or 9.5 per cent more than the first quarter of 2013. Japan imported 49.5 million mt of coal, which again represented an increase of about 9 per cent. Preliminary data is indicating an overall volume growth in seaborne dry bulk trade of 6 per cent for the first three months of 2014
against a net fleet growth of about 5 per cent", it noted.
DRY BULK MARKET TONNAGE TRENDS
According to Golden Ocean, about 16 million dwt of new capacity was delivered and 3.5 million dwt was scrapped during first quarter. Delivery ratio, versus what should have been delivered according to the official order book, is slightly higher this year compared to the previous five years. The main reason is that the current order book has a higher percentage of good quality yards where orders are delivered in time. About 25 million dwt were ordered during the first quarter, almost twice as much as the same quarter last year, but still 10 million dwt less than the fourth quarter of 2013. The order book represents 19 per cent of the total dry bulk fleet.
Capesize vessels earned on average $16,300 per day during the first quarter, and experienced strong volatility ranging from $7,900 per day to $35,000 per day. Panamaxes earned on average $10.425 per day with less volatility. The market performed better than most forecasters predicted, given that iron ore stockpiles in the major Chinese ports were high by the end of last year. However de-stocking did not take place and stocks remained unchanged during the quarter. We have witnessed some draw down of inventories in recent weeks and the Capesize spot market in particular has reacted accordingly.
Expectations for an upturn in earnings were high through most of the first quarter. This was reflected in the Forward Freight Curve which was in contango, in particular for the second half of 2014. Due to the fact that spot earnings surprised on the upside in combination with a positive sentiment, asset values continued to trend higher in the three first months of the year. The value of a five year old Capesize was up 10 per cent for the quarter and according to broker estimates was worth $48 million, while a five year old Panamax was up 7.5 per cent first quarter and was estimated to be worth $29 million by the end of March 2014.
In April 2014 both spot and forward markets have been under pressure, but most analysts remain confident that the fundamentals should cater for a market upswing within the next few months", the company concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 23 May 14
DRY BULK NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS COULD HELP SUPPORT MARKET IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's demise over the past few months maybe has come as a surprise to many, but analysts and shipbrokers are looking forward to ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
HEAR SUCCESSFUL CASE STUDIES FROM 10 INDEPENDENT UNCONVENTIONAL GAS OPERATORS
Unconventional Gas Asia 2014 will provide a unique opportunity for Asia’s unconventional gas leaders to share their experience and expertise ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CNPC-GAZPROM DEAL A MEDIUM - TERM POSITIVE FOR CHINA'S GAS SECTOR
Fitch Ratings says a 30-year deal in which Russia's OAO Gazprom (BBB/Negative) will supply gas to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC; A ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE
Handy
A quiet start into the week in Far East, some fresh Indonesian coal order in the market. For trips within S.E. Asia, Supras are trading aro ...
Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seabo ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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