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Saturday, 24 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S RECOVERY IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER SAYS SHIPOWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the weaker than expected market sentiment in the dry bulk market over the course of the past few months, analysts and shipowners alike appear optimistic about a sustainable recovery of the market going forward. According to Friday's report from dry bulk shipowner Golden Ocean, "even though second quarter spot market so far has been weaker than predicted by most analysts following the sector, earnings have still been better than for the same period last year.
The Capesize earnings has year to date been $14,650 /day, compared to $5,650/day for the same period last year. In 2013 the dry bulk market started its recovery in June and gained more momentum from August onwards. From a demand perspective it is expected that new iron ore supply coming on stream will be the main driver over the next two to three years. From 2014 through 2016 as much as 280 million tons additional supply will become available for the global steel industry", said Golden Ocean.
In its market outlook the company noted that "analysts following the Chinese steel industry are expecting lower steel production growth. This is based on the assumptions of lower GDP growth and a gradual change from heavy infrastructure projects and construction to a more consumer focused growth model. In spite of a slower steel production growth analysts believe that demand for iron ore will continue to grow at a steady pace. With all the new capacity entering the market is likely that international iron ore prices will come under even stronger pressure. Consequently a major portion of the domestically produced iron ore which is both more expensive and with an inferior quality could potentially be ousted.
Meanwhile, the ordering of new vessels has been quite brisk. But given that most orders that have been placed lately are for second half 2016 onwards, the supply growth next eighteen months is not expected to exceed five per cent per annum. Most shipping analysts believe that demand growth will be around six per cent per annum and thereby outpace supply growth, leading to a higher utilization of the dry bulk fleet through 2015", Golden Ocean noted.
In its analysis of the dry bulk market so far in the year, the company said that "the second biggest economy in the world continued to make the headlines during first quarter of 2014. China has become the favorite of concerns among many observers analyzing the macroeconomics. The importance for the dry bulk industry is well known and China contributed with 83 per cent of global dry bulk growth, or 200 million tons in pure volume growth, during 2013. Chinese GDP grew by 7.4 per cent during the first quarter which was in line with expectations. In addition to the positive development in the U.S., several of the European economies showed signs of recovery. On the back of this EU increased its steel
production by 6.7 percent compared to same quarter in 2013.
The global steel industry and energy coal for utilities are accounting for about 70 percent of seaborne dry bulk transportations and both coal and iron ore volumes increased during first quarter. China imported 240 million mt of iron ore during the first quarter. This is 20 per cent more than the same quarter last year. Coal imports to China came in at 71 million mt or 9.5 per cent more than the first quarter of 2013. Japan imported 49.5 million mt of coal, which again represented an increase of about 9 per cent. Preliminary data is indicating an overall volume growth in seaborne dry bulk trade of 6 per cent for the first three months of 2014
against a net fleet growth of about 5 per cent", it noted.
DRY BULK MARKET TONNAGE TRENDS
According to Golden Ocean, about 16 million dwt of new capacity was delivered and 3.5 million dwt was scrapped during first quarter. Delivery ratio, versus what should have been delivered according to the official order book, is slightly higher this year compared to the previous five years. The main reason is that the current order book has a higher percentage of good quality yards where orders are delivered in time. About 25 million dwt were ordered during the first quarter, almost twice as much as the same quarter last year, but still 10 million dwt less than the fourth quarter of 2013. The order book represents 19 per cent of the total dry bulk fleet.
Capesize vessels earned on average $16,300 per day during the first quarter, and experienced strong volatility ranging from $7,900 per day to $35,000 per day. Panamaxes earned on average $10.425 per day with less volatility. The market performed better than most forecasters predicted, given that iron ore stockpiles in the major Chinese ports were high by the end of last year. However de-stocking did not take place and stocks remained unchanged during the quarter. We have witnessed some draw down of inventories in recent weeks and the Capesize spot market in particular has reacted accordingly.
Expectations for an upturn in earnings were high through most of the first quarter. This was reflected in the Forward Freight Curve which was in contango, in particular for the second half of 2014. Due to the fact that spot earnings surprised on the upside in combination with a positive sentiment, asset values continued to trend higher in the three first months of the year. The value of a five year old Capesize was up 10 per cent for the quarter and according to broker estimates was worth $48 million, while a five year old Panamax was up 7.5 per cent first quarter and was estimated to be worth $29 million by the end of March 2014.
In April 2014 both spot and forward markets have been under pressure, but most analysts remain confident that the fundamentals should cater for a market upswing within the next few months", the company concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 23 May 14
DRY BULK NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS COULD HELP SUPPORT MARKET IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's demise over the past few months maybe has come as a surprise to many, but analysts and shipbrokers are looking forward to ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
HEAR SUCCESSFUL CASE STUDIES FROM 10 INDEPENDENT UNCONVENTIONAL GAS OPERATORS
Unconventional Gas Asia 2014 will provide a unique opportunity for Asia’s unconventional gas leaders to share their experience and expertise ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CNPC-GAZPROM DEAL A MEDIUM - TERM POSITIVE FOR CHINA'S GAS SECTOR
Fitch Ratings says a 30-year deal in which Russia's OAO Gazprom (BBB/Negative) will supply gas to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC; A ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE
Handy
A quiet start into the week in Far East, some fresh Indonesian coal order in the market. For trips within S.E. Asia, Supras are trading aro ...
Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seabo ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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