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Saturday, 24 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S RECOVERY IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER SAYS SHIPOWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the weaker than expected market sentiment in the dry bulk market over the course of the past few months, analysts and shipowners alike appear optimistic about a sustainable recovery of the market going forward. According to Friday's report from dry bulk shipowner Golden Ocean, "even though second quarter spot market so far has been weaker than predicted by most analysts following the sector, earnings have still been better than for the same period last year.
The Capesize earnings has year to date been $14,650 /day, compared to $5,650/day for the same period last year. In 2013 the dry bulk market started its recovery in June and gained more momentum from August onwards. From a demand perspective it is expected that new iron ore supply coming on stream will be the main driver over the next two to three years. From 2014 through 2016 as much as 280 million tons additional supply will become available for the global steel industry", said Golden Ocean.
In its market outlook the company noted that "analysts following the Chinese steel industry are expecting lower steel production growth. This is based on the assumptions of lower GDP growth and a gradual change from heavy infrastructure projects and construction to a more consumer focused growth model. In spite of a slower steel production growth analysts believe that demand for iron ore will continue to grow at a steady pace. With all the new capacity entering the market is likely that international iron ore prices will come under even stronger pressure. Consequently a major portion of the domestically produced iron ore which is both more expensive and with an inferior quality could potentially be ousted.
Meanwhile, the ordering of new vessels has been quite brisk. But given that most orders that have been placed lately are for second half 2016 onwards, the supply growth next eighteen months is not expected to exceed five per cent per annum. Most shipping analysts believe that demand growth will be around six per cent per annum and thereby outpace supply growth, leading to a higher utilization of the dry bulk fleet through 2015", Golden Ocean noted.
In its analysis of the dry bulk market so far in the year, the company said that "the second biggest economy in the world continued to make the headlines during first quarter of 2014. China has become the favorite of concerns among many observers analyzing the macroeconomics. The importance for the dry bulk industry is well known and China contributed with 83 per cent of global dry bulk growth, or 200 million tons in pure volume growth, during 2013. Chinese GDP grew by 7.4 per cent during the first quarter which was in line with expectations. In addition to the positive development in the U.S., several of the European economies showed signs of recovery. On the back of this EU increased its steel
production by 6.7 percent compared to same quarter in 2013.
The global steel industry and energy coal for utilities are accounting for about 70 percent of seaborne dry bulk transportations and both coal and iron ore volumes increased during first quarter. China imported 240 million mt of iron ore during the first quarter. This is 20 per cent more than the same quarter last year. Coal imports to China came in at 71 million mt or 9.5 per cent more than the first quarter of 2013. Japan imported 49.5 million mt of coal, which again represented an increase of about 9 per cent. Preliminary data is indicating an overall volume growth in seaborne dry bulk trade of 6 per cent for the first three months of 2014
against a net fleet growth of about 5 per cent", it noted.
DRY BULK MARKET TONNAGE TRENDS
According to Golden Ocean, about 16 million dwt of new capacity was delivered and 3.5 million dwt was scrapped during first quarter. Delivery ratio, versus what should have been delivered according to the official order book, is slightly higher this year compared to the previous five years. The main reason is that the current order book has a higher percentage of good quality yards where orders are delivered in time. About 25 million dwt were ordered during the first quarter, almost twice as much as the same quarter last year, but still 10 million dwt less than the fourth quarter of 2013. The order book represents 19 per cent of the total dry bulk fleet.
Capesize vessels earned on average $16,300 per day during the first quarter, and experienced strong volatility ranging from $7,900 per day to $35,000 per day. Panamaxes earned on average $10.425 per day with less volatility. The market performed better than most forecasters predicted, given that iron ore stockpiles in the major Chinese ports were high by the end of last year. However de-stocking did not take place and stocks remained unchanged during the quarter. We have witnessed some draw down of inventories in recent weeks and the Capesize spot market in particular has reacted accordingly.
Expectations for an upturn in earnings were high through most of the first quarter. This was reflected in the Forward Freight Curve which was in contango, in particular for the second half of 2014. Due to the fact that spot earnings surprised on the upside in combination with a positive sentiment, asset values continued to trend higher in the three first months of the year. The value of a five year old Capesize was up 10 per cent for the quarter and according to broker estimates was worth $48 million, while a five year old Panamax was up 7.5 per cent first quarter and was estimated to be worth $29 million by the end of March 2014.
In April 2014 both spot and forward markets have been under pressure, but most analysts remain confident that the fundamentals should cater for a market upswing within the next few months", the company concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 20 May 14
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP 39.11 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 19 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF 2014, BUT OVERSUPPLY STILL AN ISSUE SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST
As a gruelling first quarter edges closer to the end, dry bulk ship owners are looking at an improved second quarter demand, which, coupled with sl ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY CLAIMS PARAGON SHIPPING'S HEAD MICHAEL BODOUROGLOU
The dry bulk market is bound for a recovery in the coming weeks, as the market will be better balanced, said Mr. Michael Bodouroglou, Chairman and ...
Monday, 19 May 14
INDO COAL SWAPS FOR AVERAGE Q3' 2014 DELIVERY LOST ON WEEK AND ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports release ...
Monday, 19 May 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL LOST 2.49% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 2.49 percent month on month and closed at US$ 74.35 per mt as on F ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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