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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 April 14
INDONESIAN MARCH COAL EXPORT VOLUME SURGE 9.12% TO 35.54 MMT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.9 ...
Tuesday, 22 April 14
NEWCASTLE WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FELL 13.33% THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 21 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q1'15 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWING A POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q2’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q4 2014 AND Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED MARGINALLY HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2 PRICES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 0.87 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.15 per mt as ...
Monday, 21 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET UPS AND - MOST RECENTLY - DOWNS OFFERS NO ROOM FOR RELAXING AMONG DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's latest demise, with the market retrating once again, since the end of March, has come at a time, when most ship owners ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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