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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 June 14
INDO SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3,Q4 OF 2014 AND Q1 2015: LOST ON DAY AND MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 continue last week’s trend or lost on day, week and on month according to Asia ...
Monday, 09 June 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP Q3 14 DELIVERIES LOST 4.61% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 4.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 71.62 per mt a ...
Sunday, 08 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR PANAMXES TO REMAIN VOLATILE; NO IMPROVEMENTS SEEN OVER THE WEEK
COALspot.com: Cape index increase pushes BDI index to 989 points week on week. The BDI firmed up by 5.88 pct and closed at 989 points week ended 6 ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
EVERYTHING CHANGES, AND NOTHING ABIDES - HERACLITUS
A couple of weeks ago, and while everyone was focusing on the struggling freight market, Russia and China made history by signing a three-decade lo ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
FIRST BITE AT ANTI-CORRUPTION CLAUSE - BIMCO
In recent years a number of countries have introduced anti-corruption legislation which, unfortunately, fails to recognise the practical implicatio ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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