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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 June 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 4.34 percent month on month and closed at US$ 71.05 per mt a ...
Sunday, 15 June 14
COAL FREIGHT RATES FALL FURTHER ON LACK OF DEMANDS - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The BDI softened this week as all segments fell this week. The Panamax sector being most affected. The Cape index was down 3.51 pct w ...
Friday, 13 June 14
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 3% IN WEEK THAT ENDED JUNE 7, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Friday, 13 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON FALLING, DESPITE RESPITE OF THE CAPESIZE SECTOR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on its lacklustre performance overall, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) still hovering below the 1,000 point mark. Yest ...
Thursday, 12 June 14
INDONESIA SETS HBA FOR MONTH OF JUNE AT US$ 73.64
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised up first time in last four months the coal bench mark price. ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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