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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 June 14
HANDY : TA MARKET IS CONTINUING SOUTH WITH A DECREASE OF 26% W-O-W
Handy
The week started off with holidays in most European countries and the TA market is continuing south with a decrease of 26% w-o-w. We do see ...
Thursday, 12 June 14
CONSOLIDATION IS THE ' NAME OF THE GAME' WHEN IT COMES TO SHIPYARDS ACROSS ASIA - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Intense competition, a swelling of new greenfield shipyards over the past few years mainly in China, especially prior to the 2008 global financial ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME AND REVENUE SLIPS 2.75% AND 6.73% RESPECTIVELY IN APRIL
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.8* b ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
BPI TOUCHING A NEW LOW FOR THE YEAR
The Dry Bulk market closed off the week positively, on the back of firming Capesize rates, while the market overall continues to face a very challe ...
Monday, 09 June 14
GOVT GETS TOUGH ON ILLEGAL MINING, SUSPENDS LICENSES - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has temporarily suspended the licenses of 62 mineral and coal transportation companies as part of its efforts to curb illegal mining ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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