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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seaborne trade. The main concern has been the slower expansion of China and other emerging markets. These markets have been the prime movers of trade over the past decade and as we witnessed over the past months, things are starting to become a tighter in terms of activity of bulk commodities.
The most important factor has been the crackdown on lending by the Chinese, which in turn prompted many organizations to revise their forecasts on Chinese GDP this year from a previous prediction of 8.2 percent, down to 7.4 percent. At the same time, many are confident that should there be a sharp slowdown in economic activity, the People’s Bank of China will step in and ease some of its monetary policies. Nevertheless, we have already seen these lending restrictions take effect on certain trades, with even difficulties in issuing letters of credit by some traders cutting down their import volumes.
The dry bulk market has felt the main brunt of these new trends, with the spring season being more limited in cargoes than usual and rates having taken a sharp turn for the worst through most of the past months. This has caused many to revise their ideas as to the overall freight market performance for 2014 and has even brought a halt in the previously peaking SnP activity, pushing for a correction in asset prices. Early May has seen an average of 3% drop in dry bulk asset prices compared to where they stood at the end of April and as many potential buyers are waiting for further corrections, this downturn could easily continue at least up until the first half of the summer.
It’s not all bad news however, as things have started to look brighter for several of the OECD countries, with both Europe and the U.S. seeing an increase in their respective growth forecasts. For the latter, many are expecting an improvement over the second half of the year, as the ample cash flow and improved demand should eventually boost their imports significantly. These are more likely to effect the tanker and more importantly container markets and should give both these a boost. It doesn’t just stop there though.
There is still ample seaborne trade to be seen this year and as the fleet growth has now been limited, shipping markets should be able to perform better then what they had 2-3 years back. In the dry bulk market we have seen 240 new buildings delivered up until now, while from the remaining 584 vessels scheduled for 2014, a significant number are likely to either be delayed or even cancelled.
It is important to note here that even during 2013 and while the market was on a more optimistic tone, the combined slippage and cancellation rate was 36.5%, while during 2014 58 new buildings have already either been re-scheduled for post 2014 or cancelled. Similarly, in the Tanker sector deliveries for this year are mild in contrast to past years. What’s more is that the Tanker sector also holds much better trade prospects for the remainder of the year and this could lead to a better year in terms of earnings.
In conclusion, all this could possibly see for a higher investment interest especially come September were we typically start to see a firmer freight market in the Dry Bulk, Tanker and Container markets. It looks as now it’s a bit of a “wait and see” game and as the clouds of uncertainty clear out we should end up with a clearer picture as to where the market is going.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY LOST 8.60% Y-O-Y;4.80% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 23 June 14
COAL SWAPS DROPS FURTHER MONTH ON MONTH ON WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 6.91 percent month on month and closed at US$ 69.00 per mt a ...
Sunday, 22 June 14
THE PANAMAX COAL FREIGHT FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA SLIPPED THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, fell slightly on Friday ...
Friday, 20 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR UPSIDE ON ROBUST SEABORNE IRON ORE TRADE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market hasn’t been able to justify the heightened expectations this year. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index managed to inch forwar ...
Friday, 20 June 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.8% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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