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Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government target of 200 Gigawatts (GW) nuclear power capacity by 2030 due to a number of constraints. The report, titled 'Are China's nuclear power plans achievable?', concludes that while there will be significant progress, with nuclear capacity increasing from 14.6 GW in 2013 to 175 GW by 2030, the missed targets will translate into opportunities for coal producers to capture additional demand growth.
Mr Gavin Thompson, Head of Asia Pacific Gas & Power research for Wood Mackenzie says, "China's environmental measures will drive notable nuclear capacity growth. Additionally, uranium supply will be available for China. However, remaining challenges will result in nuclear falling short of government targets. The government targets 200 GW of nuclear capacity, which would make up 11% of the power generation mix by 2030. In reality, we forecast nuclear capacity to reach 175 GW by then, making up just ten percent of the power generation mix: equivalent to a 2.3% annual growth, from 14.6 GW of nuclear capacity in 2013."
Wood Mackenzie says that by 2030, China's nuclear capacity will account for 30% of the world's total nuclear fleet. Mr Thompson adds, "Putting things into context, in 2013 China made up a mere 4.5% of the global nuclear fleet. Therefore the growth we expect in this timeframe is phenomenal, even if targets are not met."
"What is noteworthy about our forecast is that despite environmental measures pushing for a reduction in coal-fired power generation in China, a shortfall in nuclear capacity will create additional opportunities for coal suppliers, on top of coal remaining the dominant source of base-load electricity," Thompson explains.
Wood Mackenzie's nuclear generation forecast reveals a 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) gap of base-load electricity supply. Coal is expected to meet 125 TWh of the gap while natural gas and renewables accounts for the remainder. Though natural gas production and imports will significantly increase, it will be insufficient to prevent coal from accounting for 64% of the power generation mix by 2030. The report highlights that although coal's share will decline from 75% in 2013, due to the rapid growth in natural gas and renewables capacity, coal will still see net volume growth. Additionally, the one percent upside for coal from nuclear not meeting targets will translate to an additional coal demand of 63 million tonnes per year (mmtpa) by 2025 and 55 mmtpa by 2030.
"Our expectations for a lower level of installed nuclear capacity compared to the government's target are based on a number of factors: operational and siting challenges; constraints on the pace of local nuclear technology development; lack of skilled and trained personnel; lack of supporting infrastructure for uranium fuel fabrication and disposal; and a lack of full support by the public in building inland plants. As such, it's likely that some of the planned and proposed capacity build will be delayed or cancelled," Thompson elaborates.
Mr Thompson concludes, "We took into account these challenges that hold back the development of nuclear but still see China making incredible progress and coming close to government targets of 200 GW by 2030. Our nuclear outlook for China reinforces Wood Mackenzie's view that coal will continue to play a dominant role in power generation in the foreseeable future, even with the successful implementation of new environmental measures. While nuclear will moderate the growth in coal-fired generation, China's coal story is far from over."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Friday, 25 April 14
2ND MYANMAR ELECTRIC POWER CONVENTION 2014 IS THE GATEWAY TO MYANMAR POWER INDUSTRY!
Press Release: 2nd Myanmar Electric Power Convention (MEPC) 2014 is scheduled on 21-23 October, 2014 at Traders Hotel in Yangon, Myanmar. MEPC o ...
Friday, 25 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR NEW TRACTION - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market seems to have gained its footing after the past few dissapointing weeks, during which the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) shedded mos ...
Thursday, 24 April 14
HANDY : A FLOW OF FRESH REQUIREMENTS LIFTING THE PACIFIC SLOWLY TO US$ 10-11 K BSS SINGAPORE FOR COAL ROUNDS
Handy
There is still no place to hide in the Atlantic for the smaller but flexible sizes. Slow and weak seems to be the headlines, although th ...
Wednesday, 23 April 14
EUROPE WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO REPLACE RUSSIAN GAS, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
A ban on Russian gas imports to the EU would cause substantial disruption to Europe's economy and industry, Fitch Ratings says. In the immed ...
Wednesday, 23 April 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR LOW VOLATILE BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International open bidding for 90,000 Metric Tons (MT) of low volatile bit ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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