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Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government target of 200 Gigawatts (GW) nuclear power capacity by 2030 due to a number of constraints. The report, titled 'Are China's nuclear power plans achievable?', concludes that while there will be significant progress, with nuclear capacity increasing from 14.6 GW in 2013 to 175 GW by 2030, the missed targets will translate into opportunities for coal producers to capture additional demand growth.
Mr Gavin Thompson, Head of Asia Pacific Gas & Power research for Wood Mackenzie says, "China's environmental measures will drive notable nuclear capacity growth. Additionally, uranium supply will be available for China. However, remaining challenges will result in nuclear falling short of government targets. The government targets 200 GW of nuclear capacity, which would make up 11% of the power generation mix by 2030. In reality, we forecast nuclear capacity to reach 175 GW by then, making up just ten percent of the power generation mix: equivalent to a 2.3% annual growth, from 14.6 GW of nuclear capacity in 2013."
Wood Mackenzie says that by 2030, China's nuclear capacity will account for 30% of the world's total nuclear fleet. Mr Thompson adds, "Putting things into context, in 2013 China made up a mere 4.5% of the global nuclear fleet. Therefore the growth we expect in this timeframe is phenomenal, even if targets are not met."
"What is noteworthy about our forecast is that despite environmental measures pushing for a reduction in coal-fired power generation in China, a shortfall in nuclear capacity will create additional opportunities for coal suppliers, on top of coal remaining the dominant source of base-load electricity," Thompson explains.
Wood Mackenzie's nuclear generation forecast reveals a 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) gap of base-load electricity supply. Coal is expected to meet 125 TWh of the gap while natural gas and renewables accounts for the remainder. Though natural gas production and imports will significantly increase, it will be insufficient to prevent coal from accounting for 64% of the power generation mix by 2030. The report highlights that although coal's share will decline from 75% in 2013, due to the rapid growth in natural gas and renewables capacity, coal will still see net volume growth. Additionally, the one percent upside for coal from nuclear not meeting targets will translate to an additional coal demand of 63 million tonnes per year (mmtpa) by 2025 and 55 mmtpa by 2030.
"Our expectations for a lower level of installed nuclear capacity compared to the government's target are based on a number of factors: operational and siting challenges; constraints on the pace of local nuclear technology development; lack of skilled and trained personnel; lack of supporting infrastructure for uranium fuel fabrication and disposal; and a lack of full support by the public in building inland plants. As such, it's likely that some of the planned and proposed capacity build will be delayed or cancelled," Thompson elaborates.
Mr Thompson concludes, "We took into account these challenges that hold back the development of nuclear but still see China making incredible progress and coming close to government targets of 200 GW by 2030. Our nuclear outlook for China reinforces Wood Mackenzie's view that coal will continue to play a dominant role in power generation in the foreseeable future, even with the successful implementation of new environmental measures. While nuclear will moderate the growth in coal-fired generation, China's coal story is far from over."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Friday, 02 May 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT AT -0.1%, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Friday, 02 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET SHOWING SIGNS OF COMEBACK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market which has been hovering below the 1,000-point market (BDI) during the past couple of weeks, could be exhibiting signs of a s ...
Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force o ...
Thursday, 01 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET STILL REELING UNDER PRESSURE FROM VARIOUS FACTORS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's revival is still overdue, as the industry's benchmark, the BDI is still lagging below the 1,000-point mark. In fac ...
Wednesday, 30 April 14
FREIGHT MARKET FOR DRY BULKERS STILL REMAINS WEAK - INTERMODAL
One week after the Easter holiday and the celebration for the resurrection of Christ, everybody expected to see a similar sign of a revival in t ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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