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Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government target of 200 Gigawatts (GW) nuclear power capacity by 2030 due to a number of constraints. The report, titled 'Are China's nuclear power plans achievable?', concludes that while there will be significant progress, with nuclear capacity increasing from 14.6 GW in 2013 to 175 GW by 2030, the missed targets will translate into opportunities for coal producers to capture additional demand growth.
Mr Gavin Thompson, Head of Asia Pacific Gas & Power research for Wood Mackenzie says, "China's environmental measures will drive notable nuclear capacity growth. Additionally, uranium supply will be available for China. However, remaining challenges will result in nuclear falling short of government targets. The government targets 200 GW of nuclear capacity, which would make up 11% of the power generation mix by 2030. In reality, we forecast nuclear capacity to reach 175 GW by then, making up just ten percent of the power generation mix: equivalent to a 2.3% annual growth, from 14.6 GW of nuclear capacity in 2013."
Wood Mackenzie says that by 2030, China's nuclear capacity will account for 30% of the world's total nuclear fleet. Mr Thompson adds, "Putting things into context, in 2013 China made up a mere 4.5% of the global nuclear fleet. Therefore the growth we expect in this timeframe is phenomenal, even if targets are not met."
"What is noteworthy about our forecast is that despite environmental measures pushing for a reduction in coal-fired power generation in China, a shortfall in nuclear capacity will create additional opportunities for coal suppliers, on top of coal remaining the dominant source of base-load electricity," Thompson explains.
Wood Mackenzie's nuclear generation forecast reveals a 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) gap of base-load electricity supply. Coal is expected to meet 125 TWh of the gap while natural gas and renewables accounts for the remainder. Though natural gas production and imports will significantly increase, it will be insufficient to prevent coal from accounting for 64% of the power generation mix by 2030. The report highlights that although coal's share will decline from 75% in 2013, due to the rapid growth in natural gas and renewables capacity, coal will still see net volume growth. Additionally, the one percent upside for coal from nuclear not meeting targets will translate to an additional coal demand of 63 million tonnes per year (mmtpa) by 2025 and 55 mmtpa by 2030.
"Our expectations for a lower level of installed nuclear capacity compared to the government's target are based on a number of factors: operational and siting challenges; constraints on the pace of local nuclear technology development; lack of skilled and trained personnel; lack of supporting infrastructure for uranium fuel fabrication and disposal; and a lack of full support by the public in building inland plants. As such, it's likely that some of the planned and proposed capacity build will be delayed or cancelled," Thompson elaborates.
Mr Thompson concludes, "We took into account these challenges that hold back the development of nuclear but still see China making incredible progress and coming close to government targets of 200 GW by 2030. Our nuclear outlook for China reinforces Wood Mackenzie's view that coal will continue to play a dominant role in power generation in the foreseeable future, even with the successful implementation of new environmental measures. While nuclear will moderate the growth in coal-fired generation, China's coal story is far from over."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Tuesday, 22 April 14
INDONESIAN MARCH COAL EXPORT VOLUME SURGE 9.12% TO 35.54 MMT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.9 ...
Tuesday, 22 April 14
NEWCASTLE WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FELL 13.33% THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 21 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q1'15 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWING A POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q2’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q4 2014 AND Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED MARGINALLY HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2 PRICES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 0.87 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.15 per mt as ...
Monday, 21 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET UPS AND - MOST RECENTLY - DOWNS OFFERS NO ROOM FOR RELAXING AMONG DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's latest demise, with the market retrating once again, since the end of March, has come at a time, when most ship owners ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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