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Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government target of 200 Gigawatts (GW) nuclear power capacity by 2030 due to a number of constraints. The report, titled 'Are China's nuclear power plans achievable?', concludes that while there will be significant progress, with nuclear capacity increasing from 14.6 GW in 2013 to 175 GW by 2030, the missed targets will translate into opportunities for coal producers to capture additional demand growth.
Mr Gavin Thompson, Head of Asia Pacific Gas & Power research for Wood Mackenzie says, "China's environmental measures will drive notable nuclear capacity growth. Additionally, uranium supply will be available for China. However, remaining challenges will result in nuclear falling short of government targets. The government targets 200 GW of nuclear capacity, which would make up 11% of the power generation mix by 2030. In reality, we forecast nuclear capacity to reach 175 GW by then, making up just ten percent of the power generation mix: equivalent to a 2.3% annual growth, from 14.6 GW of nuclear capacity in 2013."
Wood Mackenzie says that by 2030, China's nuclear capacity will account for 30% of the world's total nuclear fleet. Mr Thompson adds, "Putting things into context, in 2013 China made up a mere 4.5% of the global nuclear fleet. Therefore the growth we expect in this timeframe is phenomenal, even if targets are not met."
"What is noteworthy about our forecast is that despite environmental measures pushing for a reduction in coal-fired power generation in China, a shortfall in nuclear capacity will create additional opportunities for coal suppliers, on top of coal remaining the dominant source of base-load electricity," Thompson explains.
Wood Mackenzie's nuclear generation forecast reveals a 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) gap of base-load electricity supply. Coal is expected to meet 125 TWh of the gap while natural gas and renewables accounts for the remainder. Though natural gas production and imports will significantly increase, it will be insufficient to prevent coal from accounting for 64% of the power generation mix by 2030. The report highlights that although coal's share will decline from 75% in 2013, due to the rapid growth in natural gas and renewables capacity, coal will still see net volume growth. Additionally, the one percent upside for coal from nuclear not meeting targets will translate to an additional coal demand of 63 million tonnes per year (mmtpa) by 2025 and 55 mmtpa by 2030.
"Our expectations for a lower level of installed nuclear capacity compared to the government's target are based on a number of factors: operational and siting challenges; constraints on the pace of local nuclear technology development; lack of skilled and trained personnel; lack of supporting infrastructure for uranium fuel fabrication and disposal; and a lack of full support by the public in building inland plants. As such, it's likely that some of the planned and proposed capacity build will be delayed or cancelled," Thompson elaborates.
Mr Thompson concludes, "We took into account these challenges that hold back the development of nuclear but still see China making incredible progress and coming close to government targets of 200 GW by 2030. Our nuclear outlook for China reinforces Wood Mackenzie's view that coal will continue to play a dominant role in power generation in the foreseeable future, even with the successful implementation of new environmental measures. While nuclear will moderate the growth in coal-fired generation, China's coal story is far from over."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Sunday, 20 April 14
FREIGHT RATES END WEEK ON WEAK NOTE - VISTAAR
Wish you all Happy Easter.
The freight market continued to its downwards as BDI was fell 7.187 percent to 930 points week on week.
The ...
Friday, 18 April 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 1% TO 18.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 17 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET ON RETREAT MODE, WHILE NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY STALLS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on retreating this week, a pattern which emerged since late March. Yesterday the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended yet a ...
Wednesday, 16 April 14
INDONESIA'S FEBRUARY 2014 COAL EXPORT VOLUME FELL 2.41%
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world 4th largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.77* billio ...
Wednesday, 16 April 14
Q1 2014 : TERMS OF FREIGHT RATES THE PERFORMANCE IN THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS NOT MET THE HIGH EXPECTATIONS - INTERMODAL
This year the dates for the celebration of Easter will coincide for the Orthodox and the Catholic, so we are already seeing most people in the m ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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