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Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government target of 200 Gigawatts (GW) nuclear power capacity by 2030 due to a number of constraints. The report, titled 'Are China's nuclear power plans achievable?', concludes that while there will be significant progress, with nuclear capacity increasing from 14.6 GW in 2013 to 175 GW by 2030, the missed targets will translate into opportunities for coal producers to capture additional demand growth.
Mr Gavin Thompson, Head of Asia Pacific Gas & Power research for Wood Mackenzie says, "China's environmental measures will drive notable nuclear capacity growth. Additionally, uranium supply will be available for China. However, remaining challenges will result in nuclear falling short of government targets. The government targets 200 GW of nuclear capacity, which would make up 11% of the power generation mix by 2030. In reality, we forecast nuclear capacity to reach 175 GW by then, making up just ten percent of the power generation mix: equivalent to a 2.3% annual growth, from 14.6 GW of nuclear capacity in 2013."
Wood Mackenzie says that by 2030, China's nuclear capacity will account for 30% of the world's total nuclear fleet. Mr Thompson adds, "Putting things into context, in 2013 China made up a mere 4.5% of the global nuclear fleet. Therefore the growth we expect in this timeframe is phenomenal, even if targets are not met."
"What is noteworthy about our forecast is that despite environmental measures pushing for a reduction in coal-fired power generation in China, a shortfall in nuclear capacity will create additional opportunities for coal suppliers, on top of coal remaining the dominant source of base-load electricity," Thompson explains.
Wood Mackenzie's nuclear generation forecast reveals a 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) gap of base-load electricity supply. Coal is expected to meet 125 TWh of the gap while natural gas and renewables accounts for the remainder. Though natural gas production and imports will significantly increase, it will be insufficient to prevent coal from accounting for 64% of the power generation mix by 2030. The report highlights that although coal's share will decline from 75% in 2013, due to the rapid growth in natural gas and renewables capacity, coal will still see net volume growth. Additionally, the one percent upside for coal from nuclear not meeting targets will translate to an additional coal demand of 63 million tonnes per year (mmtpa) by 2025 and 55 mmtpa by 2030.
"Our expectations for a lower level of installed nuclear capacity compared to the government's target are based on a number of factors: operational and siting challenges; constraints on the pace of local nuclear technology development; lack of skilled and trained personnel; lack of supporting infrastructure for uranium fuel fabrication and disposal; and a lack of full support by the public in building inland plants. As such, it's likely that some of the planned and proposed capacity build will be delayed or cancelled," Thompson elaborates.
Mr Thompson concludes, "We took into account these challenges that hold back the development of nuclear but still see China making incredible progress and coming close to government targets of 200 GW by 2030. Our nuclear outlook for China reinforces Wood Mackenzie's view that coal will continue to play a dominant role in power generation in the foreseeable future, even with the successful implementation of new environmental measures. While nuclear will moderate the growth in coal-fired generation, China's coal story is far from over."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Thursday, 08 May 14
'TRIAL BY MEDIA, TRIAL BY LAW' - A REPORT FROM TRACK 1 OF BIMCO'S ANNUAL CONFERENCE DUBAI 2014
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Aiming to bring a very different type of event into their annual conference, BIMCO presented ‘Double Jeopardy &n ...
Thursday, 08 May 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN MAY CRASHES THROUGH $74
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised down again the coal bench mark price by US$ 1.21 / MT to ...
Wednesday, 07 May 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS NOTED ANOTHER WEEKLY POSITIVE GAIN
Chartering (Wet: Softer- / Dry: Stable+)
The Dry Bulk market has noted another weekly positive gain, driven by the Capesize segment, but we ne ...
Wednesday, 07 May 14
SGX ENHANCES ITS COMMODITIES PRODUCT OFFERING
COALspot.com: SGX is building up its bulk commodity product offerings with 9 more derivative contracts over the next 2 months, subject to regula ...
Tuesday, 06 May 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORT SLIPS 7.92% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 5 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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