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Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government target of 200 Gigawatts (GW) nuclear power capacity by 2030 due to a number of constraints. The report, titled 'Are China's nuclear power plans achievable?', concludes that while there will be significant progress, with nuclear capacity increasing from 14.6 GW in 2013 to 175 GW by 2030, the missed targets will translate into opportunities for coal producers to capture additional demand growth.
Mr Gavin Thompson, Head of Asia Pacific Gas & Power research for Wood Mackenzie says, "China's environmental measures will drive notable nuclear capacity growth. Additionally, uranium supply will be available for China. However, remaining challenges will result in nuclear falling short of government targets. The government targets 200 GW of nuclear capacity, which would make up 11% of the power generation mix by 2030. In reality, we forecast nuclear capacity to reach 175 GW by then, making up just ten percent of the power generation mix: equivalent to a 2.3% annual growth, from 14.6 GW of nuclear capacity in 2013."
Wood Mackenzie says that by 2030, China's nuclear capacity will account for 30% of the world's total nuclear fleet. Mr Thompson adds, "Putting things into context, in 2013 China made up a mere 4.5% of the global nuclear fleet. Therefore the growth we expect in this timeframe is phenomenal, even if targets are not met."
"What is noteworthy about our forecast is that despite environmental measures pushing for a reduction in coal-fired power generation in China, a shortfall in nuclear capacity will create additional opportunities for coal suppliers, on top of coal remaining the dominant source of base-load electricity," Thompson explains.
Wood Mackenzie's nuclear generation forecast reveals a 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) gap of base-load electricity supply. Coal is expected to meet 125 TWh of the gap while natural gas and renewables accounts for the remainder. Though natural gas production and imports will significantly increase, it will be insufficient to prevent coal from accounting for 64% of the power generation mix by 2030. The report highlights that although coal's share will decline from 75% in 2013, due to the rapid growth in natural gas and renewables capacity, coal will still see net volume growth. Additionally, the one percent upside for coal from nuclear not meeting targets will translate to an additional coal demand of 63 million tonnes per year (mmtpa) by 2025 and 55 mmtpa by 2030.
"Our expectations for a lower level of installed nuclear capacity compared to the government's target are based on a number of factors: operational and siting challenges; constraints on the pace of local nuclear technology development; lack of skilled and trained personnel; lack of supporting infrastructure for uranium fuel fabrication and disposal; and a lack of full support by the public in building inland plants. As such, it's likely that some of the planned and proposed capacity build will be delayed or cancelled," Thompson elaborates.
Mr Thompson concludes, "We took into account these challenges that hold back the development of nuclear but still see China making incredible progress and coming close to government targets of 200 GW by 2030. Our nuclear outlook for China reinforces Wood Mackenzie's view that coal will continue to play a dominant role in power generation in the foreseeable future, even with the successful implementation of new environmental measures. While nuclear will moderate the growth in coal-fired generation, China's coal story is far from over."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Monday, 05 May 14
HUANENG CLEAN ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE HAS CONFIRMED TO SPEAK AT CCF2014
Press Release: Produced by CDMC Events, The 13th Clean Coal Forum 2014 will be held on June 12,13, 2014 in Beijing, China. We are glad to invite ...
Monday, 05 May 14
SUB BIT-FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS LOST GROUND LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports ...
Monday, 05 May 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR AVERAGE Q3 14 DELIVERIES: LOST 0.82% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 0.82 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.20 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 04 May 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE SHOWING POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: The freight market is seems to be some recovery as cape index has increased by 7.84 pct week on week. Cape index closed at 1829 po ...
Friday, 02 May 14
ADARO ENERGY STARTS YEAR 2014 WELL DESPITE CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy, the second largest Indonesian coal miner's revenue increased 14% to US$ 845 million due to higher sales volume, ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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