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Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government target of 200 Gigawatts (GW) nuclear power capacity by 2030 due to a number of constraints. The report, titled 'Are China's nuclear power plans achievable?', concludes that while there will be significant progress, with nuclear capacity increasing from 14.6 GW in 2013 to 175 GW by 2030, the missed targets will translate into opportunities for coal producers to capture additional demand growth.
Mr Gavin Thompson, Head of Asia Pacific Gas & Power research for Wood Mackenzie says, "China's environmental measures will drive notable nuclear capacity growth. Additionally, uranium supply will be available for China. However, remaining challenges will result in nuclear falling short of government targets. The government targets 200 GW of nuclear capacity, which would make up 11% of the power generation mix by 2030. In reality, we forecast nuclear capacity to reach 175 GW by then, making up just ten percent of the power generation mix: equivalent to a 2.3% annual growth, from 14.6 GW of nuclear capacity in 2013."
Wood Mackenzie says that by 2030, China's nuclear capacity will account for 30% of the world's total nuclear fleet. Mr Thompson adds, "Putting things into context, in 2013 China made up a mere 4.5% of the global nuclear fleet. Therefore the growth we expect in this timeframe is phenomenal, even if targets are not met."
"What is noteworthy about our forecast is that despite environmental measures pushing for a reduction in coal-fired power generation in China, a shortfall in nuclear capacity will create additional opportunities for coal suppliers, on top of coal remaining the dominant source of base-load electricity," Thompson explains.
Wood Mackenzie's nuclear generation forecast reveals a 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) gap of base-load electricity supply. Coal is expected to meet 125 TWh of the gap while natural gas and renewables accounts for the remainder. Though natural gas production and imports will significantly increase, it will be insufficient to prevent coal from accounting for 64% of the power generation mix by 2030. The report highlights that although coal's share will decline from 75% in 2013, due to the rapid growth in natural gas and renewables capacity, coal will still see net volume growth. Additionally, the one percent upside for coal from nuclear not meeting targets will translate to an additional coal demand of 63 million tonnes per year (mmtpa) by 2025 and 55 mmtpa by 2030.
"Our expectations for a lower level of installed nuclear capacity compared to the government's target are based on a number of factors: operational and siting challenges; constraints on the pace of local nuclear technology development; lack of skilled and trained personnel; lack of supporting infrastructure for uranium fuel fabrication and disposal; and a lack of full support by the public in building inland plants. As such, it's likely that some of the planned and proposed capacity build will be delayed or cancelled," Thompson elaborates.
Mr Thompson concludes, "We took into account these challenges that hold back the development of nuclear but still see China making incredible progress and coming close to government targets of 200 GW by 2030. Our nuclear outlook for China reinforces Wood Mackenzie's view that coal will continue to play a dominant role in power generation in the foreseeable future, even with the successful implementation of new environmental measures. While nuclear will moderate the growth in coal-fired generation, China's coal story is far from over."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Monday, 12 May 14
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT AROUND 1 MMT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL DURING AUGUST 2014 THROUGH NOVEMBER 2014
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 1.050 million tons of sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant through open t ...
Monday, 12 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING TO FIND FIRM FOOTING
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be weak and the BDI closed slightly lower at 997 points or fell 1.96 pct week on week. The cape in ...
Friday, 09 May 14
RBCT SHIPPED 5.4 MMT OF COAL IN APRIL
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest coal export terminal in the world, shipped 5.45 million to ...
Friday, 09 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET: BANKRUPTCY TONNAGE UNLEASHED
Drewry’s latest Dry Bulk Forecaster saw freight rates on most routes declined in 2014’s first quarter as the previous quarter’ ...
Friday, 09 May 14
UNITED STATES COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY SLIDES TO 82.4 MMST IN APRIL
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
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