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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF 2014, BUT OVERSUPPLY STILL AN ISSUE SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST
As a gruelling first quarter edges closer to the end, dry bulk ship owners are looking at an improved second quarter demand, which, coupled with slo ...
Monday, 24 February 14
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY APRIL - JUNE 2014 SLIDES TO $ 58.60 PMT
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s the largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 slide week ended ...
Monday, 24 February 14
Q1 2015 DELIVERY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT 2.62% HIGHER THAN Q2 2014 CLOSING SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 2.68 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.20 per mt as on Fr ...
Saturday, 22 February 14
SHIPPING POISED TO RALLY AFTER SEVERAL WEEKS OF DROP
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady to firm with the dry bulk index up by 6.24 pct closing at 1,175 points week on week and the cape index w ...
Saturday, 22 February 14
POTEN RAISES THE QUESTION OF ACCURACY IN CALCULATING TANKER FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the tanker market has grown in complexity over the course of the past few years, the question of whether the traditional methods of assessing rat ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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