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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 27 February 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS SLIP 26.68 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 24 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2. ...
Wednesday, 26 February 14
SMALLER SIZE SEGMENTS HOLDING ON TO THEIR LEVELS; CAPES CORRECTING UPWARDS - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable+)
The Dry Bulk market continued to improve this past week, on the back of rates for the smaller size s ...
Tuesday, 25 February 14
GBCE, A COAL UPGRADING TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPER, APPOINTS RICHARD BULMAN AS PROJECT DIRECTOR
Press Release: GB Clean Energy Ltd. (GBCE) announced today the appointment of Richard Bulman as Project Director. In this capacity Mr. Bulman ...
Tuesday, 25 February 14
ULTRAMAXES ARE THE 'WEAPON OF CHOICE' FOR DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's been a busy start in 2014, as the first month of the year was a rather active in terms of second hand vessel purchases and newbuilding orderin ...
Tuesday, 25 February 14
SGX'S MONTHLY VOLUMES DRASTICALLY INCREASED AND REACHED A RECORD OF 810K TONNES YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: SGX Thermal Coal derivatives started the new year with record volumes in January on the back of higher volatility, says SGX.
Accord ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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