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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 February 14
PTBA TO INCREASE ITS COAL TERMINAL'S LOADING CAPACITY TO 25 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY JULY 2014
COALspot.com: PT. Bukit Asam (PTBA), the Indonesian government owned coal miner operates several coal mining units in Sumatera as well as in Kaliman ...
Friday, 28 February 14
U.S PRODUCED 1.9% LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 28 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET SLOWLY BUT STEADILY FINDS ITS FOOTING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market, hit by the low seasonal demand which is a typical characteristic of the first quarter of each year, is beginning to emerge from ...
Thursday, 27 February 14
PANAMAX : MARKET CONTINUED TO DECLINE IN THE ATLANTIC
Handy
The Atlantic handy/supra market experienced a downward trend this week but not a dramatic one. TA rates are down around USD 800 w-o-w lead b ...
Thursday, 27 February 14
SHIPPING LOANS WORTH $5 BILLION HAVE CHANGED HANDS OVER THE PAST YEAR, AS FUNDS INVEST IN SHIPPING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Funds investing in shipping has been the "talk of the town" over the past couple of years, as institutional investors, private equity and ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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