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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 March 14
HIGHER PRICES AND STEADY FREIGHT RATES LEAD SHIP OWNERS TO TEMPORARILY HALT SECOND HAND VESSEL PURCHASES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market has kept on improving, but at a very slow rate, ship owners have elected to take a step back from the flurry of the S&P m ...
Monday, 03 March 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP (FOB) FOR AVERAGE Q115 CLOSED AT $60.28, $ 1.70 HIGHER THAN 2Q14
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 slightly corrected do ...
Monday, 03 March 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA SWAPS: Q4' 2014 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 1.40 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2' 2014 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 1.90 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.27 per mt as on Fr ...
Monday, 03 March 14
COSTS LIABILITY PASSING DOWN A CHARTERPARTY CHAIN - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Provided that charterparties are on back to back terms, and the claim is successful, liability for costs incurred shoul ...
Sunday, 02 March 14
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY TO FIRM THIS PAST WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady to firm this past week. The BDI was up 7.06 pct and closed at 1258 points and the cape index was also fi ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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