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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 08 March 14
LETTERS OF INDEMNITY - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In today's trading market, owners are frequently requested to accept a letter of indemnity (LOI) in exchange for complying ...
Friday, 07 March 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO BENEFIT FROM CHINA'S GDP GROWTH TARGET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With the dry bulk market freight rates finally making waves, China's aim of 7.5% GDP growth for 2014 mean once again positive news for the shipping ...
Friday, 07 March 14
RBCT, WORLD'S LARGEST COAL EXPORTING TERMINAL SHIPPED 1.78% LESS COAL MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 4.487 million tons of ...
Friday, 07 March 14
INDONESIA SHIPPED 7% LESS COAL IN JANUARY 2014 COMPARED TO ITS DECEMBER EXPORTS
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world 4th largest coal producer and the Global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.8* billion ...
Friday, 07 March 14
INDONESIA TO PRODUCE 421 MMT OF COAL IN 2014
Coalspot.com: Indonesia finally agreed to increased 2014 coal output by as much as 6 percent to 421 million metric tons from its previous plan, a se ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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