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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 March 14
HOLD HARMLESS CLAUSES ARE NOT ALWAYS MUTUAL! - ITIC
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
ITIC provides an insurance related contract review service to all of its members. As the leading professional indemnity i ...
Tuesday, 11 March 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 6.98% LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 10 March 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2 ...
Tuesday, 11 March 14
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 slip again thi ...
Monday, 10 March 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS LOST 4.28 PERCENT MONTH ON MONTH FOR Q2 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 4.28 percent month on month and closed at US$ 73.97 per mt as on Fr ...
Monday, 10 March 14
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS QUITE FIRM THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was quite firm this past week with BDI sharply increased by 22.65 pct week on week and closed at 1543 points, while ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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