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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 May 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT AT -0.1%, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Friday, 02 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET SHOWING SIGNS OF COMEBACK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market which has been hovering below the 1,000-point market (BDI) during the past couple of weeks, could be exhibiting signs of a s ...
Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force o ...
Thursday, 01 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET STILL REELING UNDER PRESSURE FROM VARIOUS FACTORS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's revival is still overdue, as the industry's benchmark, the BDI is still lagging below the 1,000-point mark. In fac ...
Wednesday, 30 April 14
FREIGHT MARKET FOR DRY BULKERS STILL REMAINS WEAK - INTERMODAL
One week after the Easter holiday and the celebration for the resurrection of Christ, everybody expected to see a similar sign of a revival in t ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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