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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 05 May 14
HUANENG CLEAN ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE HAS CONFIRMED TO SPEAK AT CCF2014
Press Release: Produced by CDMC Events, The 13th Clean Coal Forum 2014 will be held on June 12,13, 2014 in Beijing, China. We are glad to invite ...
Monday, 05 May 14
SUB BIT-FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS LOST GROUND LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports ...
Monday, 05 May 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR AVERAGE Q3 14 DELIVERIES: LOST 0.82% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 0.82 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.20 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 04 May 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE SHOWING POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: The freight market is seems to be some recovery as cape index has increased by 7.84 pct week on week. Cape index closed at 1829 po ...
Friday, 02 May 14
ADARO ENERGY STARTS YEAR 2014 WELL DESPITE CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy, the second largest Indonesian coal miner's revenue increased 14% to US$ 845 million due to higher sales volume, ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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