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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 15 January 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL BY 6.57% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 6.57 percept month on month and closed at US$ 78.90 per mt as ...
Wednesday, 15 January 14
INDONESIAN MINING LAW AVERTS BOP PRESSURE, RISKS REMAIN, FITCH SAYS
The last-minute intervention at the weekend by Indonesia's politicians to avert a significant disruption of mining activity and exports, should lim ...
Wednesday, 15 January 14
Q3 AND Q4 INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS DECLINE MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost $ 1.23 pmt month on month on Friday 10 January 2014. T ...
Wednesday, 15 January 14
PANAMAX: PACIFIC - REMAINED QUIET; ATLANTIC - CONTINUED THEIR RETREAT
COALspot.com: The holiday hangover seems well underway for the Dry Bulk market that saw more ground being lost this past week. The BDI has closed of ...
Tuesday, 14 January 14
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FALL 18.28 %
COALspot.com: In the week ended January 13, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2.67 ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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