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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 17 December 12
SHIP PRICES TO BOTTOM OUT IN 2013 SAYS GEORGE D. GOURDOMICHALIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship values especially in older tonnage, or even modern vessels with poor quality are expected to fall further during 2013, with the market as a who ...
Monday, 17 December 12
SYNERGISING WITH PIONEERS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW'S LATIN AMERICAN RAILWAYS
Press Release: Brazil being one of the largest country in South America has one of the most dynamic rail markets in the world. Rail transport in Bra ...
Sunday, 16 December 12
FREIGHT TREND SOFTENED THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market further softened this week and closed at 784 points (down by 18.84 pct). The cape index had the biggest fall ...
Friday, 14 December 12
GMR GROUP OF INDIA TO IMPORT 100K MT OF 4800 GAR COAL
COALspot.com: GMR Group of India to invite bids for 100,000 Metric Tons of imported non coking coal to be delivered during January and February 2013 ...
Thursday, 13 December 12
HANDY : WCI-CHINA RATES AROUND $ 6000 AND ECI-CHINA AROUND $ 4000 - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Atlantic market remained unchanged. Rates from USG to Feast were around USD 18k and Black Sea to Feast about USD 10k. USG-Skaw-Passero rates ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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