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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 March 13
BUNKER FUELS ARE ABOUT TO GET CLEANER, BUT AT WHAT COST? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The cost of bunkers is nowadays the driving force behind most ship owners' major decisions, with regulations bound to change in many parts of the w ...
Sunday, 24 March 13
THE SUB-BIT INDONESIA'S COAL SWAPS FOR Q2 DELIVERY PRICE LOST 7.47 PERCENT PMT M-O-M
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 3.39 percent and CFR South China coal shipment 2.65 ...
Sunday, 24 March 13
FREIGHT MARKETS CONTINUED TO FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market continued to remain firm in all segments except for cape index which softened slightly.
The BDI was up by 4.60 ...
Sunday, 24 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS OFFER ROOM FOR RESTRAINED OPTIMISM SAYS SHIP OWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its announcement regarding its annual performance, ship owner Frontline offered some useful insight on the future prospects of both the dry bulk ...
Saturday, 23 March 13
WORLD COAL TRADE FIRST PASSES 1 BILLION TONS IN 2012 - VEREIN DER KOHLENIMPORTEURE E.V
Press Release: Hard coal imports to Germany on the previous year's level in spite of regenerative energies. Imports for power plants at an all-time ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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