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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 April 13
HANDY:QUIET ; PANAMAX: SLOW START; CAPESIZE: LOW ACTIVITIES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets remain quiet as charterers and owners waiting to see how it moves. The USG-Feast was at USD 20k and Black Sea-Feast was ...
Wednesday, 03 April 13
HBA HAS LOST US$ 1.53 PER MT IN APRIL 2013
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal bench mark price has lost $1.53 / MT in April 2013.
The monthly coal referen ...
Tuesday, 02 April 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 633K MT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,029,482 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 1 April 2013, Newcas ...
Tuesday, 02 April 13
THE GOVERNORS TO TAKE OVER AUTHORITY OF MINING, FORESTRY AND PLANTATION CONCESSIONS
The Indonesian government is planning to transfer the authority of issuing mining, forestry and plantation concessions from municipalities and distr ...
Sunday, 31 March 13
COAL FREIGHTS ARE IN FLAT TO WEAK TREND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market after several weeks of firming up seemed to lose steam and this week all the indices were down except for handy s ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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