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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 March 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: UP 0.55 % WOW; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL CONTRACT: UP 0.23 % WOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.55 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Thursday, 28 March 13
SHIP OWNERS KEEN ON ACQUIRING SECOND HAND TONNAGE, AS WELL AS NEW BUILDINGS IN CONVENTIONAL SEGMENTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The recent rally of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), coupled with renewed optimism, at least in some parts of the wet market, have prompted many ship own ...
Wednesday, 27 March 13
PTBA HAS CONCLUDED US$ 16.14 BILLION WORTH OF COAL SALES AND PURCHASE AGREEMENT WITH PLN
COALspot.com - PT. Bukit Asam, a 32 years old Indonesian state owned coal miner has signed a coal sales and purchase agreement with PT PLN, (a state ...
Wednesday, 27 March 13
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL FOR TWO YEARS - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry recovered to their highest level for two years in the three months ended February 2013, according ...
Tuesday, 26 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.39 MMT OF COAL W/E 25 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2.396 million tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 25 March 2013, N ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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