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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 April 13
US COAL CONSUMPTION TO INCREASE FROM 889 MMST IN 2012 TO 948 MMST IN 2013 AND 957 MMST IN 2014 - EIA
Based on estimates for the first quarter of 2013, American coal production has continued to decline.
Total production is down 9.9 million short t ...
Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per ...
Monday, 08 April 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: UPWARD TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.71 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 07 April 13
CHARTER RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO DECLINING DEMAND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to fall further with all the indices down.
The BDI was down by 5.38 pct closing at 861 points and the ...
Friday, 05 April 13
SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS TO GO LIVE
COALspot.com - The Exchange has announced that the SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap will go live for clearing on SGX-DC starting from 29 Ap ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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