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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 14 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS FALL 6.83 PERCENT
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,771,891 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 13 May 2013, Newcast ...
Monday, 13 May 13
SGX ASIACLEAR OTC COAL SWAPS : RELATIVELY STABLE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average June 2013 delivery has gained 0.15 percent and API 8 CFR South China Coal shipment&nb ...
Saturday, 11 May 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com - This week the market remained flat compared to last week. BDI slightly up 0.68 pct and closed at 884 points and the cape size index u ...
Friday, 10 May 13
U.S. PRODUCED TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 18.5 MMST OF COAL W/E 4 MAY 2013
COALspot.com - U.S. produced totaled approximately 18.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a week (For the week ended 4 May, 2013), EIA said in it ...
Thursday, 09 May 13
KILLARA AUSTRALIA ACQUIRES 80% INTEREST IN BORNEO EMAS HITAM
COALspot.com - Killara Resources has announced that, the company has signed a binding MoU to acquire an 80% equity interest in PT. Borneo Emas Hitam ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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