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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 June 13
COAL: NO SIGN OF RECOVERY - GABRIELLA
COALspot.com: We attended the 19th Annual Coaltrans Asia Conference, where we found most of the speakers were not very optimistic on the outlook for ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ENDED 11 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,104,509 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 11 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
OUTLOOK FOR CAPESIZES LOOKS GRIM, DESPITE FALLING IRON ORE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things aren't looking all that rosy for the dry bulk market, despite a stronger volume of iron ore imports during the months of March and April, as ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 0.03 percent week on week but gained 0.07 pe ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
IRON ORE DEMAND: WEAK; COAL MOVEMENT: STEADY TO INDIA AND CHINA - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with BDI up by 0.37 per cent closed at 812 points this week.
The Cape index was also ended in ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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