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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong ap ...
Saturday, 01 June 13
COAL PRICES STRUGGLE TO FIRM UP
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have gained 0.18 percent week on week and 0.03 percent ...
Saturday, 01 June 13
THE FREIGHT MARKET FOR S7 AND S8 SECTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – The freights are remains weak week ended 31 May 2013, as BDI fell 2.05 pct and closed at 809 points on 31 May 2013.
The Cape ...
Friday, 31 May 13
US PRODUCED 18.5 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL W/E 25 MAY 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 18.50 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 30 May 13
HANDY: RBCT ROUND WAS AROUND USD 9K + 300 BB - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
THE Atlantic market remained flat. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 12k. The Pacific market remained quiet with no ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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