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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 June 13
MEDITERRANEAN COAL MARKETS
Press Release: 3rd International Conference Mediterranean Coal Markets will be held on 16-17th of September 2013, Istanbul, Turkey, Ceylan Intercont ...
Friday, 07 June 13
US'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED BY 0.54 PER CENT THE WEEK ENDED JUNE 1
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 18.60 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 06 June 13
WE ARE SEEING SOME FRESH INDO COAL TO CHINA AND INDIA - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
In the Atlantic, the Gulf remains firm for the next week with a few orders in the market. The Supramaxes are seeing around low 20k for fronth ...
Wednesday, 05 June 13
DON'T AVOID PAYING COAL ROYALTY TO THE GOVERNMENT - INDONESIAN ENERGY MINISTER
COALspot.com – “Every country has the right to make policies to protect their national interests”, Energy and Mineral Resources Mi ...
Tuesday, 04 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.56 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,563,596 tons of coal for week ended 0700 hours 3 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. said ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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