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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
"While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 November 13
Q3' 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1' 14 PRICES
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery gained 0.55 percept W-W on Friday 8 November 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
THE SOFTENING HAS AFFECTED THE BIGGER SIZE SEGMENTS; SMALLER ONES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY STABLE - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of back to back weekly declines, the dry bulk market has finally reversed its negative course. We believe that there should ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET HAS REVERSED ITS NEGATIVE COURSE - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable+ )
The Dry Bulk market has reversed its negative course this past week with rates for Capes making up fo ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS PLUNGE 12.40% IN W/E 10 NOVEMBER FROM THE PRIOR WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 11, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totaled 2.42 ...
Monday, 11 November 13
TAMIL NADU STATE OWNED POWER GENERATOR TO IMPORT 3.7 MMT OF 6000 GAD COAL
COALspot.com - TANGEDCO, Tamil Nadu Generation & Distribution Corporation Ltd, Tamil Nadu state owned power generator & distributor intends ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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