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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 15 November 13
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.59% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 15 November 13
TAIWAN'S PLASTICS GROUP FORMOSA TO IMPORT 1.37 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 14
COALspot.com: Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group is inviting bids for total 1.37 million mt of coal for 1Q’ 14 for its various plants in Taiwan, ...
Thursday, 14 November 13
KOMIPO TO BUY 270K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2' 14
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International Open Bidding for 140,000 Metric Tons (MT) of sub-bituminous coal ...
Thursday, 14 November 13
PANAMAX : MARKET SHOULD BE AROUND USD 11500 FOR 1 YEAR - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market has picked up this week with prompt ships able USG for November dates coming off and chrts need to pay up in order to cov ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
Y'14 SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP MOVING AT SNAIL-SPEED
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’2014 delivery gained 2.95 percept month on month on Friday ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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