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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
"While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 November 13
SHIP OWNER POUR MORE MONEY INTO DRY BULK CARRIER ACQUISITIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The recent dry bulk market's rally, coupled with an expected fall in oversupply and robust cargo demand has boosted ship owners' optimism on the l ...
Monday, 18 November 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST ON WEEK; MARGINALLY GAINED ON DAY
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.25 pmt month on month on Friday 15 Novemb ...
Sunday, 17 November 13
Q4' 14 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.43 PMT (4.34 %) HIGHER THAN Q1' 14 SWAP
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 0.05 percept d-d on Friday 15 November 2013. The CFR South ...
Saturday, 16 November 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES FIRM DUE TO STRONG COAL ACTIVITIES
COALspot.com: The Cape and Panamax index was down this week and pulling down the BDI by about 5 pct. BDI was closed at 1507 points on Friday 1 ...
Friday, 15 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LINGERING ON, DESPITE PREDICTIONS OF NEW IMMINENT RALLY PRIOR TO THE YEAR'S END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market hasn't yet managed to stage a new comeback after its retreat from the recent multiyear highs. Yesterday, the industry's benchm ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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