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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 24 November 13
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES REMAINED FIRM FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA AND CHINA - SOLYM
COALspot.com: The freight market was fairly steady except for the Supramax in SE Asia region which continued to remain firm. The BDI was down by 1.5 ...
Friday, 22 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LACKLUSTRE, DESPITE PROJECTIONS OF A NEW RALLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
We might still be about six weeks far from the end of the year, but the projected by many analysts upcoming rally of the dry bulk market, hasn't ye ...
Friday, 22 November 13
US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 1.3% W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 21 November 13
TAIPOWER TO PROCURE 750K MT OF 5500 GAR BITUMINOUS COAL FOR MAY - AUGUST 2014
COALspot.com: Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 750,000 metric tons of bituminous coal with calorific value not lesser than 5,500 kcal/kg on a ...
Thursday, 21 November 13
CAPESIZE : THE DOWNWARD TREND HAS TURNED INTO NOTABLE SPOT AND PERIOD IMPROVEMENT - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic market experienced a general rate increase for most trades this week. More cargoes in the market and chrts looking for prompt t ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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