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Wednesday, 16 October 13
WILL THIS LATEST DRY BULK MARKET UPTREND PROVE TO BE AS LONG-LIVED OR JUST ANOTHER MOMENTARY SPIKE? - CHRISTOS MANZTIOS
 COALspot.com: So here we are again facing the same old question: Will this latest market uptrend prove to be as long-lived as all owners hope or just another momentary spike which will deflate at the first signs of trouble?, said Christos Manztios a SnP Broker from Intermodal in his latest weekly report.
According to Christos Manztios, the dry bulk market, despite having been on a roller coaster ride since early spring, has now entered the seasonally strong months of October and November with renewed optimism. But this might come at price: Renewed optimism might result in a flurry of new-building activity/ordering which could, if done in excess, ultimately tip the scales against owners once again.
Intermodal's analyst Manztios said his latest report, albeit the improved market conditions, new ordering have seemingly started to slow down as the lack of availability of early slots (now seeing early to mid-2016) coupled with rising NB prices have both started to take their toll on buying interest. During September the dry bulk market witnessed a total of 58 dry orders, with Ultramaxes holding the lion's share and numbering 22 in total, while Handies closely followed in volume with 21.
For the time being new building capacity seems to be waning, with several shipbuilders already limiting production in many of their facilities and overstretching their slots’ schedule. This has worked fine so far, but as freight earnings start to improve and in turn we see ever growing demand for new orders, shipbuilders will inevitably seeks to remobilize their unused resources and step back up to full production, plaguing the industry with excess tonnage supply once again, Intermodal weekly report said.
According to Intermodal weekly report, Greek owners top the list for NB orders placed so far this year in terms of both number of vessels and dwt (131 vessels/11.7 mill dwt) followed by Japanese owners in terms of number of ships (106 vessels/4.2mill dwt) and Chinese owners in terms of dwt (96 vessels/6 mill dwt). Greek buyers also dominated the second hand market as well, with one in every four vessels that changed hand during 2013 ending up to a Greek buyer and at ever higher prices.
This is epitomized in the likes of sales such as that of the M/V Cape Challenger (180kdwt blt 2013 IHI) and M/V JK Pioneer (180kdwt blt 2013 HHI) which were reported sold reg USD 52mill each, a sharp appreciation in price when compared (especially taking into account the fact that the sale was included by a below market charter attached of USD 11,000/day till May 2014) with the sale of M/V Bulk Canada (180kdwt blt 2012 Hanjin Philippines) reg USD 41.25mill back in August.
"This trend is not solely attributed to the freight rally in Capes but also backed by both an overall positive perception as to the prospects of the market from 2014 onwards and the still attractively-priced assets across all size segments (at least in comparison with pre-2012 levels where a 5 year old Cape was priced above USD 36.0 mill, a 5 year old Panamax above USD 26.5 mill and a 5 year old Supramax was above USD 24,5 mill)," according to Intermodal's analyst Manztios.
Caution (and eye-brows) may have been raised as to the potential longevity of the recent run-up in freight rates, but it doesn’t look like the upward momentum is over just yet. Things may have slowed down for Capes, but with their average freight rates still holding above 30,000/day and with the rest of the size segments slowing showing signs of catching up in gains, it will all depend to what extent this positive momentum can hold and how well these new market conditions will hold up in the first quarter of 2014 a period in the year that tends to be considerably softer and a good indicator as to how well the market will perform during the whole year, Christos Manztios a SnP Broker from Intermodal concluded.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 17 October 13
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS DOWN 9.4% TO 25.96 MMT IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: China's August Imported coal volumes down 9.4% m-m but up 27% y-y, BNP said in its latest China Coal & Power report released on 1 ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
NEW STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN A RAPIDLY EVOLVING COAL INDUSTRY
The 12th Annual Coal Markets assumes even more significance as the industry seeks more market information, inputs on trade strategies, supply and de ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
CAPES: RATES DROPPED; PANAMAX: ADVANCED - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of straight weekly positive closings, the BDI has finished the week in the red. Monday started slow as holidays in the East ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
KOSEP TO IMPORT 0.49 MILLION TONS OF 4600 NAR COAL FOR JAN - FEB '14
COALspot.com - Korea South-East Power Co., a Korean generator and distributor of electricity on behalf of five Korean Gencos intends to procure 490, ...
Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research anal ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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