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Wednesday, 16 October 13
WILL THIS LATEST DRY BULK MARKET UPTREND PROVE TO BE AS LONG-LIVED OR JUST ANOTHER MOMENTARY SPIKE? - CHRISTOS MANZTIOS
 COALspot.com: So here we are again facing the same old question: Will this latest market uptrend prove to be as long-lived as all owners hope or just another momentary spike which will deflate at the first signs of trouble?, said Christos Manztios a SnP Broker from Intermodal in his latest weekly report.
According to Christos Manztios, the dry bulk market, despite having been on a roller coaster ride since early spring, has now entered the seasonally strong months of October and November with renewed optimism. But this might come at price: Renewed optimism might result in a flurry of new-building activity/ordering which could, if done in excess, ultimately tip the scales against owners once again.
Intermodal's analyst Manztios said his latest report, albeit the improved market conditions, new ordering have seemingly started to slow down as the lack of availability of early slots (now seeing early to mid-2016) coupled with rising NB prices have both started to take their toll on buying interest. During September the dry bulk market witnessed a total of 58 dry orders, with Ultramaxes holding the lion's share and numbering 22 in total, while Handies closely followed in volume with 21.
For the time being new building capacity seems to be waning, with several shipbuilders already limiting production in many of their facilities and overstretching their slots’ schedule. This has worked fine so far, but as freight earnings start to improve and in turn we see ever growing demand for new orders, shipbuilders will inevitably seeks to remobilize their unused resources and step back up to full production, plaguing the industry with excess tonnage supply once again, Intermodal weekly report said.
According to Intermodal weekly report, Greek owners top the list for NB orders placed so far this year in terms of both number of vessels and dwt (131 vessels/11.7 mill dwt) followed by Japanese owners in terms of number of ships (106 vessels/4.2mill dwt) and Chinese owners in terms of dwt (96 vessels/6 mill dwt). Greek buyers also dominated the second hand market as well, with one in every four vessels that changed hand during 2013 ending up to a Greek buyer and at ever higher prices.
This is epitomized in the likes of sales such as that of the M/V Cape Challenger (180kdwt blt 2013 IHI) and M/V JK Pioneer (180kdwt blt 2013 HHI) which were reported sold reg USD 52mill each, a sharp appreciation in price when compared (especially taking into account the fact that the sale was included by a below market charter attached of USD 11,000/day till May 2014) with the sale of M/V Bulk Canada (180kdwt blt 2012 Hanjin Philippines) reg USD 41.25mill back in August.
"This trend is not solely attributed to the freight rally in Capes but also backed by both an overall positive perception as to the prospects of the market from 2014 onwards and the still attractively-priced assets across all size segments (at least in comparison with pre-2012 levels where a 5 year old Cape was priced above USD 36.0 mill, a 5 year old Panamax above USD 26.5 mill and a 5 year old Supramax was above USD 24,5 mill)," according to Intermodal's analyst Manztios.
Caution (and eye-brows) may have been raised as to the potential longevity of the recent run-up in freight rates, but it doesn’t look like the upward momentum is over just yet. Things may have slowed down for Capes, but with their average freight rates still holding above 30,000/day and with the rest of the size segments slowing showing signs of catching up in gains, it will all depend to what extent this positive momentum can hold and how well these new market conditions will hold up in the first quarter of 2014 a period in the year that tends to be considerably softer and a good indicator as to how well the market will perform during the whole year, Christos Manztios a SnP Broker from Intermodal concluded.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 18 October 13
WOOD MACKENZIE FORECASTS CHINA WILL OUTWEIGH THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR BASE METALS DEMAND BY 2017
China set to account for 52% of 117mt base metals market by 2017
China is on track to exceed rest of the World demand by 2017, becoming the singl ...
Friday, 18 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON "PAUSE" MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been on "pause" mode over the past week, after China's return from the week long holidays. The industry's benchm ...
Friday, 18 October 13
US PRODUCED 6.7% MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 17 October 13
CAPESIZE: RATES ARE AGAIN MOVING UPWARDS - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Activities were obviously slowed down in the Pacific basin. There were only few coal movements which fixed around USD 15-16k for ships in Sin ...
Thursday, 17 October 13
SGX TO LAUNCH "SGX THERMAL COAL FUTURES" NEXT MONDAY
COALspot.com: SGX is to launch two thermal coal futures contracts, SGX API 8 CFR China Coal Index Futures and SGX IHS McCloskey Indonesian Sub-bit F ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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