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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 21 August 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING - POSITIVE WINDOW FOR CAPESIZE OWNERS - PETER SAND
By: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
Demand:
“Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market” was what we wrote last time ar ...
Wednesday, 21 August 13
RATES FOR CAPES MOVED DECISIVELY NORTH THIS WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com - Right when the BDI seemed ready for another dive below the 1000 points level, the Dry Bulk market made significant comeback this week ...
Tuesday, 20 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FALL 19.15 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 19.15 per cent week on week to 2.39 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 20 August 13
CAPESIZE RATES MORE SENSITIVE TO DEMAND - COMMODORE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
COALspot.com : Approximately 71.50 million tons of iron ore is now stockpiled at Chinese ports, 900,000 tons (-1%) less than a week ago, Commodore R ...
Sunday, 18 August 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP : ON POSITIVE DIRECTION ON DAY, WEEK AND MONTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery US$ 1.83 up month on month. The swap was moved positive ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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