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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 30 August 13
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 0.48 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.70 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 29 August 13
HANDY: THE PACIFIC MARKET STARTED HEALTHY THIS WEEK - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Pacific market started healthy this week. We have seen many bauxite, iron ore and few coal fixtures. Ships passing Singapore were able to ...
Thursday, 29 August 13
NO RATING IMPACT ON INDONESIAN ENERGY COMPANIES FROM RUPIAH DEPRECIATION - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says the credit profiles of rated Indonesian energy and utilities companies, including thermal coal producers, will largely remain una ...
Wednesday, 28 August 13
THE BDI HAS MOVED TO LEVELS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR - INTERMODAL
By George Bassakos
SnP Broker - Intermodal
We have already reached the end of August and whilst students are preparing themselves for another sc ...
Tuesday, 27 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMPED 15.59 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 15.59 per cent week on week to 2.76 million mt for ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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