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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 12 August 13
GBCE SUCCESSFUL IN UPGRADING LOW RANK INDONESIAN COAL ON INDUSTRIAL SCALE
COALspot.com : GB Clean Energy Ltd. (GBCE) has annoused that, the company has successfully upgraded 2,426 tonnes of low rank 4,018 kcal NAR Ind ...
Monday, 12 August 13
INDIA - SAFE SHIPMENT OF IRON ORE FINES FROM INDIAN PORTS - WEST OF ENGLAND P&I CLUB
As Members may be aware, in 2009 two ships, the ‘Asian Forest’ and the ‘Black Rose’, capsized and sank following the liquefa ...
Sunday, 11 August 13
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS : FLAT ON DAY
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery flat on day due to holidays in Indonesia, Malaysia & ...
Sunday, 11 August 13
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA CONTINUED TO BE SOFT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The freight market was soft this week with all indices down , the reason could be long weekend holidays in Indonesia, Singapore and M ...
Saturday, 10 August 13
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR US COAL INDUSTRY CHANGES TO STABLE FROM NEGATIVE
Moody's Investors Service has changed its outlook for the US coal industry to stable from negative, the rating agency says in a new report, "U ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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