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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 26 August 13
CARRIAGE OF COAL CARGOES FROM KALIMANTAN, INDONESIA - WEST OF ENGLAND P&I CLUB
The Club has recently been advised by consulting scientists and engineers Dr J H Burgoyne and Partners (International) Limited that the number of in ...
Sunday, 25 August 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: HEADING TO NORTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery US$ 2.39 up month on month. The swap was moved positive ...
Sunday, 25 August 13
THE FREIGHT MARKET S7 & S8 SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY/FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to be firm with all indices moved positive except for Panamax which was slightly down (2 pct down).
T ...
Friday, 23 August 13
US PRODUCED MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.80 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 22 August 13
PANAMAX : PERIOD MARKET IS STILL BEING LED BY STRONGER SENTIMENT IN THE FFA'S - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
This week started slowly as expected. Indo biz now rate APS around 7k +60k to china and around 8k+80k to India. However, there are some ships ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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