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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 04 September 13
RBCT SHIPPED 16.18 PERCENT MORE COAL IN JULY
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) is the single largest coal export terminal South African as well as in the world has shipped 6,162, ...
Wednesday, 04 September 13
SUPRAS AND HANDIES : INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES ARE SUPPORTING HEALTHY ACTIVITY LEVELS - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has pooled back a bit this week after firming for two weeks in a row. The BDI is s holding above 1,100 points and despite the sm ...
Tuesday, 03 September 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 22.93 PER CENT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 22.93 per cent week on week to 3.39 million mt for ...
Sunday, 01 September 13
COAL SWAP SHOWS MIXED TREND
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery 1.25 percent up month on month. The swap was moved posit ...
Sunday, 01 September 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SPOT FREIGHT STAYS FIRM THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be firm with even though the BDI and Cape index dropped by about 3 pct week on week.
The BDI was do ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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