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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 10 September 13
COAL EXPORTS AT AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SLIP 30.31% ON WEEK TO 2.36 MMT
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port down 30.31 per cent week on week to 2.36 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 10 September 13
WORLDWIDE COAL CONSUMPTION RISES SHARPLY - RA DR. ERICH SCHMITZ
By: RA Dr. Erich Schmitz, Verein der Kohlenimporteure (Germany Coal Importers Association)
World hard coal market in the first half of 2013: worl ...
Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the frei ...
Sunday, 08 September 13
Q3 2014 THERMAL COAL SWAPS : STEADY DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery up 1.88 percent month on month. The swap was moved ...
Sunday, 08 September 13
BALTIC INDEX UP ON HIGHER CAPESIZE, PANAMAX RATES
COALspot.com : The freight market continued saw one of the biggest rally last week with Cape Size taking the lead followed by Panamax.
The BDI wa ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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