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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 09 July 13
CAPESIZE: SHOT UP; PANAMAXES: NOT SO LUCK; SUPRAS: SLIGHTLY BETTER; HANDIES: SOFT - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com : June 2013 Recap
A renewed Capesize market this month (June 2013) was the cause for much of the overall noteworthy performanc ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
THE 11TH DEEP COAL PROCESSING FORUM 2013
Press Release : The 11th Deep Coal Processing Forum 2013 will be held in November Beijing China.
CDMC Events is pleased to announce that 11 ...
Monday, 08 July 13
ECO-FRIENDLY COAL FOR CHINA - VALUE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND VALUE FOR THE POWER GENERATOR - BY: LINDSAY JUNIPER
COALspot.com : January 2013 saw an episode of extreme particulate pollution in Beijing 35 times worse than the safe level recommended by the World H ...
Sunday, 07 July 13
FREIGHT MARKET IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT TO STABLE NEXT WEEK- VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market softened for the week ended 5 July 2013, and experienced a decline in all sectors, including BDI. Bulk dry Index d ...
Sunday, 07 July 13
COAL PRICES REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com – Coal swaps for the year 2014 indicate that, the pressure on coal prices will continue at least until next year. Ave ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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