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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 17 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FELL 3.85% ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,860,149 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 15 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS
COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed governm ...
Tuesday, 16 July 13
TAKE - OR - PAY CONTRACTS CONTINUE TO INCENTIVISE AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS DESPITE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE CASH MARGINS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Australia's coal production has continued to grow, despite lower coal prices in 2013. Global investors and suppliers are therefore questioning whet ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT HAS REVISED DOWN ITS JULY BENCH-MARK COAL PRICE TO US$ 81.69 PER MT
COALspot. com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference dropped 3.75 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian government has revised down its owned coal ben ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDO COAL SWAPS ARE STRUGGLING FOR RIGHT DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Indo coal swaps are struggling to find the right direction. Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 d ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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