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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Monday, 01 July 13
12TH CLEAN COAL FORUM INDONESIA 2013
Press Release: Produced by CDMC Events, The 12th Clean Coal Forum Indonesia 2013 will be held on Dec 5-6,2013 in Jakarta, Indonesia. It will generat ...
Monday, 01 July 13
INDIA AND CHINA STILL DOMINATING THE INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORT MARKET
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's largest multi types coal exporter shipped 35.83* million tons of coal in May 2013, 1.40 per cent l ...
Sunday, 30 June 13
YEAR 2014 INDO SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 2013 LEVEL
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 delivery have gained 0.08 percent on a day lost on week ...
Sunday, 30 June 13
CAPESIZE RATES SEEN INCREASING ON HIGH DEMAND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to rise and saw a big gain on Friday. BDI increased 14 per cent week ended 28 June 2013, closed at 1171 points driv ...
Friday, 28 June 13
U.S. PRODUCED 1.52 PERCENT LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 19.40 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- The University of Queensland
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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