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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 12 July 13
U.S. PRODUCED 18.40 MMST COAL WEEK ENDED 6 JULY 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 18.40 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 11 July 13
PANAMAX: PACIFIC ROUND PAY AROUND $6,500/D; ATLANTIC ROUND VOYAGE PAY AROUND US$ 10,000/D - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Feast market is quiet, July date cargoes remain unfixed as there is a gap between what owners aiming and charterers willing to pay. There ...
Wednesday, 10 July 13
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com : With the first half of the year now behind us and, as expected, most shipping segments in the dry bulk market are struggling to survi ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
COAL PRICE REMAINS SLUGGISH - TRIMEGAH
COALspot.com - Newcastle coal price has reached US$ 76.30/ton (-15.9% YTD), bringing YTD’13 average to stand at US$ 87.90/ton, 6.80% lower tha ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 27.53% ON WEEK TO 2.97 MILLION MT
COALspot.com - Newcastle Coal exports up 27.53% to 2.97 million tons W-o-W.
Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,974,715 tons of coal for the ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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