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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Sunday, 18 August 13
INDO - INDIA FREIGHT EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was up this week with the BDI gaining more than 10 pct due to strong Cape Sector.
The BDI was closed at 1,102 p ...
Friday, 16 August 13
US COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.10 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 15 August 13
CAPESIZE : TRENDS SOMETIMES SHIFT WITH NO PRIOR WARNING - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The influence of the summer holidays across Europe was felt in the Atlantic basin this week. Very little activity and a growing list of avail ...
Wednesday, 14 August 13
ANOTHER WEEK IN THE RED FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- )
Another week in the red for Dry Bulk carriers with the market losing further steam as fewer an ...
Tuesday, 13 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 30.61 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 30.61 per cent week on week to 2.95 million mt for ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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