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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Monday, 26 August 13
CARRIAGE OF COAL CARGOES FROM KALIMANTAN, INDONESIA - WEST OF ENGLAND P&I CLUB
The Club has recently been advised by consulting scientists and engineers Dr J H Burgoyne and Partners (International) Limited that the number of in ...
Sunday, 25 August 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: HEADING TO NORTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery US$ 2.39 up month on month. The swap was moved positive ...
Sunday, 25 August 13
THE FREIGHT MARKET S7 & S8 SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY/FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to be firm with all indices moved positive except for Panamax which was slightly down (2 pct down).
T ...
Friday, 23 August 13
US PRODUCED MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.80 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 22 August 13
PANAMAX : PERIOD MARKET IS STILL BEING LED BY STRONGER SENTIMENT IN THE FFA'S - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
This week started slowly as expected. Indo biz now rate APS around 7k +60k to china and around 8k+80k to India. However, there are some ships ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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